Techcle Wiki

EPIC Phase 4 Testing Validation

2 min read

EPIC: Phase 4 - Testing & Validation

Epic ID: EPIC-004
Status: Planned
Priority: P0
Estimated Effort: 40-50 hours
Dependencies: Phase 2 (Exit Strategy), Phase 3 (Position Risk)
Target Completion: 2026-04-15

Epic Overview

Comprehensive testing and validation of the complete exit strategy system. Includes backtesting framework to validate signal quality against historical data, comprehensive test coverage, and CI/CD integration.

Critical for: Validating assumptions (see RAIA A001, A004, A005) about regime transition warning windows, false positive rates, and system effectiveness.

Goals

  • Build backtesting framework for historical validation
  • Achieve 90%+ test coverage across all phases
  • Validate 1-hour cadence assumption (12-24 hour warning windows)
  • Measure false positive rate (<30% target)
  • CI/CD integration for automated testing
  • Document test scenarios and edge cases

Key Stories (Outline)

Story 4.1: Backtesting Framework (12-16h)

  • Load 3-6 months of historical metrics
  • Replay regime evaluations hour-by-hour
  • Track exit state transitions
  • Measure warning lead times
  • Identify regime breaks correctly identified vs missed
  • Validates RAIA Assumptions A001, A004

Story 4.2: Comprehensive Test Coverage (12-16h)

  • Unit tests for all Phase 2-3 code
  • Integration tests for full flows
  • Edge case testing (missing data, API failures, etc.)
  • Performance testing (168-hour replay in <10 seconds)
  • Target: 90%+ coverage

Story 4.3: False Positive Analysis (8-10h)

  • Track false exits (stopped grid, range resumed)
  • Measure opportunity cost vs capital preservation
  • Calculate net benefit ratio
  • Tune thresholds if FER >30%
  • Validates RAIA Assumption A005

Story 4.4: CI/CD Integration (4-6h)

  • GitHub Actions or GitLab CI pipelines
  • Automated test runs on PR
  • Coverage reporting
  • Prevent regression

Story 4.5: Test Documentation (4-6h)

  • Document test scenarios
  • Edge case catalog
  • Backtesting results analysis
  • Tuning recommendations based on validation

Success Criteria

  • ✅ Backtesting shows ≥80% of regime transitions provide >2 hour warning (validates A001)
  • ✅ False positive rate <30% (validates A005)
  • ✅ 90%+ test coverage for Phases 2-3 code
  • ✅ All tests passing in CI/CD
  • ✅ Zero manual regression testing needed
  • ✅ Backtesting results documented for investor presentation

Key Validation Targets (from RAIA Log)

Assumption A001 Validation:

  • Measure actual regime transition warning windows
  • Target: ≥80% provide >2 hour buffer to stop-loss
  • If <80%, need to implement 15-minute cadence

Assumption A004 Validation:

  • Confirm 1-hour cadence is sufficient
  • Track near-miss scenarios
  • Decision point: Keep 1-hour vs switch to 15-minute

Assumption A005 Validation:

  • Measure False Exit Rate (FER)
  • Calculate net benefit: capital preserved vs opportunity cost
  • Target: FER <30% AND net benefit positive

Epic Owner: Craig
Created: 2026-02-01
Status: Outline - will be detailed after Phase 3 completion

Graph View