Techcle Wiki

PRODUCT_BRIEF_SESSION_CONTINUATION

8 min read

Product Brief Session - Continuation Guide

Date: 2026-01-31 Project: Grid Exit Strategy Workflow: BMAD Product Brief Creation (Step 4 of 5 in progress) Document: .ai/projects/product-brief-workspace-root-2026-01-31.md

Current Status

✅ Completed Steps

Step 1: Initialization (Complete)

  • Created product brief document with frontmatter
  • Loaded all input documents:
    • grid-exit-strategy/spec.md (comprehensive technical spec)
    • new-instructions.md (operational requirements)
    • SYSTEM_REVIEW.md (current system status)
    • arch.md, feedback.md, lessons-learned.md (context docs)

Step 2: Product Vision (Complete)

  • Executive Summary written
  • Core Vision defined:
    • Problem Statement: Grid trading asymmetry (profits in ranges, catastrophic losses in trends)
    • Problem Impact: Blocks scaling from £1K → £10K → £100K+ without 24/7 monitoring
    • Why Existing Solutions Fall Short: Manual monitoring, exchange stop-losses, simple alerts all inadequate
    • Proposed Solution: Tiered exit state system (NORMAL, WARNING, LATEST_ACCEPTABLE_EXIT, MANDATORY_EXIT)
    • Key Differentiators: Capital preservation over peak capture, regime structure analysis, investor-grade audit trail

Step 3: Target Users (Complete)

  • Primary User: Craig - Systematic Grid Trader on Capital Scaling Journey
  • Three-phase progression documented:
    • Phase 1: Validation (£1K, 0-3 months)
    • Phase 2: Personal Scale (£10K, months 4-6)
    • Phase 3: External Capital (£100K+, months 7+)
  • User journey mapped for each phase
  • Secondary Users: N/A (solo operator tool)

🔄 In Progress

Step 4: Success Metrics Definition (CURRENT)

Awaiting user input on:

  1. Validation phase success criteria (£1K → £10K decision point):

    • What specific metrics prove “ready to scale”?
    • Is it: X successful exits? Y% profit preservation? Z months without stop-loss?
    • What’s the minimum bar?

  2. KPI prioritization:

    • Which KPIs matter for Phase 1 validation vs Phase 3 investor presentation?
    • You have comprehensive KPIs defined (PRR, SLAR, TTDR, ERT, etc.) - which are must-have early vs nice-to-have later?

  3. Qualitative vs Quantitative:

    • Are there non-numeric success indicators? (“I sleep soundly”, “No 3am price checks”, “Can run 3 grids without anxiety”)
    • How important are these vs the hard numbers?

Questions to answer in next session:

Phase 1 (Validation - £1K):
- Q: After 3-4 months, what specific evidence makes you confident to scale to £10K?
- Q: Which KPIs must be proven? Which can wait?
- Q: What's your personal "sleep soundly" threshold?

Phase 2 (Personal Scale - £10K):
- Q: What outcomes tell you "this is working at scale"?
- Q: Beyond KPIs, what behavioral changes prove success?

Phase 3 (External Capital - £100K+):
- Q: What's the "money shot" metric/story that convinces investors?
- Q: Which KPIs differentiate "works for me" from "investable strategy"?

📋 Remaining Steps

Step 5: Scope Definition (Not Started)

  • Define MVP features and future enhancements
  • Prioritize implementation phases
  • Identify constraints and dependencies

Workflow Completion

  • Finalize product brief document
  • Mark workflow complete

Key Insights from Session

Capital Scaling Strategy

Phase 1: Validation (Current - £1K)

  • Running small grids to learn mechanics
  • Building exit protection BEFORE needing it (preventative, not reactive)
  • Need 3-4 months reliable data before scaling

Phase 2: Personal Scale (Target - £10K)

  • Commit meaningful personal capital
  • Run 1-3 grids simultaneously
  • Must sleep soundly while grids run

Phase 3: External Capital (Vision - £100K+)

  • Present to investors with proven track record
  • Audit trail demonstrates systematic capability
  • Exit strategy is proof-of-concept for broader fund

Core Problem (In Craig’s Words)

“If a grid is left running whilst a downward trend occurs, the grid buys at each range bottom end and then sells at a lower stop loss, losing capital. This mechanism detects early warning signs of regime break, so the grid can be stopped before it reaches that point.”

Success Vision (In Craig’s Words)

“The ability to enter and exit the market with perfect timing, growing capital.”

Refined to: Not “perfect timing” but “good enough timing” that preserves 75-90% of profits while avoiding catastrophic losses.

Design Philosophy

  • Capital preservation over peak capture
  • Tiered urgency (not binary stop-losses)
  • Regime-aware (structural analysis, not price levels)
  • Human-in-loop (signal generation automated, execution manual)
  • Evidence-based (audit trail + KPIs for investor scrutiny)

Technical Context from Loaded Documents

System Review Findings

What’s Working:

  • ✅ Hourly regime detection (4 states: RANGE_OK, RANGE_WEAK, TRANSITION, TREND)
  • ✅ Grid configuration management
  • ✅ Git-backed storage for metrics
  • ✅ Pushover notifications with rate limiting
  • ✅ Exit state evaluators exist (partially implemented)

What’s Missing:

  • ❌ Complete exit state engine integration
  • ❌ Position risk quantification with real API data
  • ❌ 15-min evaluation cadence (currently hourly)
  • ❌ Audit logging for exit events
  • ❌ KPI tracking framework

Estimated Work to MVP: 32-37 hours

KPI Framework Defined (from specs)

Timeliness:

  • Exit Reaction Time (ERT): Time between signal and action
  • Exit Within Acceptable Window (EAW%): % exits before MANDATORY_EXIT (target ≥90%)

Profit Preservation:

  • Profit Retention Ratio (PRR): Realized profit / Peak unrealized (target ≥75%)
  • Profit Give-Back Rate (PGBR): 1 - PRR (healthy systems: 10-25%)

Risk Avoidance:

  • Post-Exit Adverse Move Avoided (PAMA): Price move after exit / Grid half-width
  • Stop-Loss Avoidance Rate (SLAR): Exits before stop / Total exits (target ≥95%)

Signal Accuracy:

  • True Transition Detection Rate (TTDR): Correct TRANSITION exits (target ≥70%)
  • False Exit Rate (FER): Unnecessary exits (target ≤30%)

Operational Discipline:

  • Mandatory Exit Compliance (MEC%): % MANDATORY_EXIT alerts acted on (target 100%)
  • Manual Delay Impact (MDI): PnL impact of delayed action

Exit State Triggers (from requirements)

MANDATORY_EXIT (immediate stop required):

  • Regime verdict = TREND
  • 2 consecutive closes outside range bounds
  • Directional structure confirmed (HH/HL or LL/LH pattern)
  • Stop-loss price breached

LATEST_ACCEPTABLE_EXIT (exit within 4-12h):

  • TRANSITION persists ≥2 4h bars OR ≥4 1h bars
  • Mean reversion half-life ≥ 2× baseline
  • Volatility expansion ratio > 1.25
  • Bollinger Band width slope sharply positive

WARNING (prepare to exit within 12-24h):

  • 2+ of: TRANSITION probability ≥40%, confidence declining, Efficiency Ratio rising, mean reversion slowing, volatility expanding

Session Accomplishments (Beyond Product Brief)

Exit State Engine Integration (Completed Today)

What we built:

  1. Fixed notification system bugs

    • Integrated exit state evaluator for active grids
    • Integrated entry state evaluator for disabled grids
    • Updated notification priorities based on exit/entry states
    • MANDATORY_EXIT forces immediate notification (bypasses rate limiting)

  2. Deployed to production

    • Version: 0.2.1
    • CronJob updated with new notification logic
    • Tested with manual runs - working correctly

  3. Fixed snapshot storage

    • Snapshots were being created but not committed to Git
    • Updated CronJob to include snapshots/ in git add
    • Raw JSON data now properly persisted for each hour

Current Production Status:

  • Image: ghcr.io/craigedmunds/market-making/metrics-service:0.2.1
  • Schedule: Hourly at :01
  • Regime: RANGE_WEAK (confidence 0.40)
  • Entry State: READY_TO_ENTER
  • Grid Status: DISABLED
  • Latest data: Hour 17, 2026-01-31

To Resume Next Session

Command to Restart BMAD Workflow

I'm continuing the BMAD Product Brief workflow for the Grid Exit Strategy.

Current status:
- Steps 1-3 complete (Initialization, Vision, Users)
- Step 4 in progress (Success Metrics)
- Document: .ai/projects/product-brief-workspace-root-2026-01-31.md

Please load the workflow and continue from Step 4.

Alternative: Direct Questions Approach

If you want to skip the BMAD workflow formality and just finish the success metrics section, here are the key questions to answer:

Validation Phase (£1K → £10K):

  1. What specific metrics/KPIs must be proven in 3-4 months?
  2. What’s the minimum bar for each (e.g., “PRR ≥ 75% across all exits”)?
  3. How many exit events do you need to see? (e.g., “at least 3 TRANSITION exits”)

Scale Phase (£10K operation):

  1. What behavioral outcomes prove success? (sleep quality, stress level, etc.)
  2. What usage patterns show it’s working? (alerts acted on within window, etc.)

Investment Phase (£100K+ pitch):

  1. Which 3-5 KPIs are the “headline numbers” for investors?
  2. What narrative/story does the data need to tell?

Files to Review

Product Brief Document:

cat .ai/projects/product-brief-workspace-root-2026-01-31.md

Current Workflow Step:

cat _bmad/bmm/workflows/1-analysis/create-product-brief/steps/step-04-metrics.md

Technical Specs (for KPI reference):

cat .ai/projects/market-making/grid-exit-strategy/spec.md
cat .ai/projects/market-making/new-instructions.md

Recommendation for Next Session

Option A (Recommended): Finish BMAD Workflow

  • Complete Step 4 (Success Metrics) - 15 minutes
  • Complete Step 5 (Scope Definition) - 15 minutes
  • Result: Comprehensive product brief ready for implementation planning

Option B: Fast-track to Implementation

  • Skip formal product brief completion
  • Use existing specs + system review to start building
  • Risk: May miss strategic alignment or success criteria

Given you’re in validation phase with time to build thoughtfully, I’d recommend Option A - finishing the product brief gives you a strategic foundation for the next 6-12 months of work and eventual investor presentations.

Questions for Reflection (Optional)

Before next session, if you want to think through success metrics:

  1. What does “proven enough” look like after 3 months of £1K testing?

    • X exits that preserved Y% profit?
    • Z consecutive months without stop-loss hit?
    • Feeling confident enough to risk £10K?

  2. At £10K scale, what changes?

    • Are you checking prices less often?
    • Sleeping through the night?
    • Running multiple grids comfortably?

  3. For investors, what’s the one-sentence proof?

    • “We’ve preserved 80%+ of profits across 15 exits over 6 months with zero stop-loss hits”?
    • “Systematic exit discipline enabled scaling from £1K to £10K without drawdown”?

These answers will make Step 4 quick and focused.

Next session: Load this file, review context, answer the success metrics questions, and we’ll finish the product brief!

Graph View