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RAIA

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Risks, Assumptions, Issues, Actions (RAIA) Log

Project: Grid Exit Strategy - Phases 2-5
Last Updated: 2026-02-01
Status: In PRD Development

🔍 Assumptions (Need Validation)

A001: Regime Transition Warning Window

  • Assumption: Regime transitions from RANGE to TREND provide 12-24 hours of warning
  • Impact: Critical - drives 1-hour evaluation cadence decision
  • Validation Needed:
    • Backtest against 3-6 months historical data
    • Measure actual warning windows in validation trading
    • Identify fastest vs slowest transitions
  • If Wrong: May need to switch to 15-minute or adaptive cadence
  • Status: UNVALIDATED - based on initial research only
  • Owner: Craig
  • Target Date: During Phase 4 (Backtesting)

A002: Git Commit Audit Trail Sufficiency

  • Assumption: Git commit history provides sufficient audit integrity for investor credibility without cryptographic signing or independent verification
  • Impact: Medium - affects investor presentation approach
  • Validation Needed:
    • Validate with potential investors during £10K → £100K scaling
    • Compare against investor expectations in fintech/trading space
  • If Wrong: May need to add cryptographic signing or third-party audit
  • Status: ASSUMED SUFFICIENT - to be validated with first investor conversations
  • Owner: Craig
  • Target Date: Pre-£100K capital raise

A003: KuCoin API Reliability

  • Assumption: KuCoin API outages are rare enough that accepting exchange outage risk is reasonable for validation phase
  • Impact: High - affects capital protection during MANDATORY_EXIT scenarios
  • Validation Needed:
    • Track KuCoin uptime during validation phase
    • Measure frequency and duration of API outages
    • Document incidents where exit execution was blocked
  • If Wrong: May need multi-exchange architecture or automated fallback mechanisms sooner
  • Status: UNVALIDATED - monitoring during validation phase
  • Owner: Craig
  • Target Date: After 3 months validation (2026-05-01)

A004: 1-Hour Cadence Sufficient for Capital Protection

  • Assumption: 1-hour evaluation cycle provides adequate responsiveness given 12-24 hour regime transition windows
  • Impact: Critical - core system design decision
  • Validation Needed:
    • Monitor near-miss scenarios where hourly eval was almost too slow
    • Track time-to-detection for all regime transitions
    • Measure % of transitions detected early enough (>2 hour buffer to stop-loss)
  • If Wrong: Need to implement 15-minute cadence or adaptive evaluation frequency
  • Status: UNVALIDATED - testing during Phase 2-5
  • Owner: Craig
  • Target Date: Phase 5 completion (2026-04-15)

A005: False Positive Rate <30% Acceptable

  • Assumption: False exit rate below 30% is acceptable (preserves net capital despite missed ranging periods)
  • Impact: Medium - affects system tuning and gate threshold calibration
  • Validation Needed:
    • Track actual false positive rate during validation
    • Measure opportunity cost vs capital preservation benefit
    • Calculate break-even false positive rate
  • If Wrong: May need to adjust gate thresholds or accept higher false exit rate
  • Status: TARGET METRIC - to be validated in Phase 4 backtesting
  • Owner: Craig
  • Target Date: Phase 4 completion (2026-04-01)

A006: Personal Capital Exempts from FCA Regulation

  • Assumption: Trading personal capital (£1K-£10K) does not trigger FCA regulatory requirements
  • Impact: High - affects compliance scope and timeline
  • Validation Needed:
    • Legal review of FCA thresholds for algorithmic trading
    • Clarify at what point (capital level or external investors) regulation applies
  • If Wrong: May need FCA registration, compliance processes, regulatory reporting
  • Status: ASSUMED EXEMPT - needs legal validation before £100K scaling
  • Owner: Craig
  • Target Date: Before external capital raise (2026-09-01)

⚠️ Risks

R001: Fast Regime Transitions (<1 hour)

  • Description: Regime transitions may occur faster than 1-hour evaluation cycle can detect
  • Probability: Medium (20-40% of transitions based on crypto volatility)
  • Impact: High (missed early warning, potential stop-loss breach)
  • Mitigation:
    • Track time-to-detection in backtesting (Phase 4)
    • Monitor near-miss scenarios during validation
    • Prepared to implement 15-minute cadence if needed
  • Trigger: If >20% of regime transitions provide <2 hour warning window
  • Status: ACCEPTED for MVP, MONITORING during validation
  • Related Assumption: A001, A004

R002: Exchange Outage During MANDATORY_EXIT

  • Description: KuCoin API/website unavailable when manual grid stop is required
  • Probability: Low (5-10% based on typical exchange uptime)
  • Impact: Critical (forced stop-loss hit, capital loss)
  • Mitigation:
    • Accept as known limitation for validation phase
    • Document incidents for future multi-exchange architecture
    • Earlier exit (WARNING/LATEST_ACCEPTABLE) reduces exposure window
  • Trigger: N/A - acceptable risk for MVP
  • Status: ACCEPTED, DOCUMENTED
  • Related Assumption: A003

R003: Git Audit Trail Gaps

  • Description: Git push failures create gaps in immutable decision record audit trail
  • Probability: Low (10-15% with retry logic)
  • Impact: Medium (audit trail incomplete, investor credibility reduced)
  • Mitigation:
    • Retry logic with exponential backoff (3 attempts)
    • Local logging as backup
    • Alert on persistent failures
  • Trigger: N/A - acceptable gap for MVP
  • Status: ACCEPTED with RETRY mitigation
  • Related Assumption: A002

R004: High False Positive Rate

  • Description: Excessive false exits erode capital through missed ranging periods
  • Probability: Medium (30-40% until gates properly tuned)
  • Impact: Medium (opportunity cost, reduced returns)
  • Mitigation:
    • Backtesting to validate gate thresholds (Phase 4)
    • Track False Exit Rate (FER) in KPI framework
    • Three-gate restart logic prevents premature re-entry
  • Trigger: If FER >30% after backtesting/tuning
  • Status: MITIGATED through backtesting and gate tuning
  • Related Assumption: A005

R005: Regulatory Threshold Breach Without Preparation

  • Description: Crossing FCA regulatory threshold without proper compliance infrastructure
  • Probability: Low (controlled capital scaling)
  • Impact: High (forced shutdown, legal issues)
  • Mitigation:
    • Legal review before £100K external capital
    • Phased scaling with compliance checkpoints
    • Clear understanding of regulatory triggers
  • Trigger: Before accepting external investment
  • Status: DEFERRED to pre-£100K phase, MONITORING
  • Related Assumption: A006

R006: Market Data Staleness

  • Description: KuCoin API failures lead to stale data for regime evaluation
  • Probability: Medium (15-25% transient failures)
  • Impact: Medium (incorrect regime classification, delayed warnings)
  • Mitigation:
    • Retry logic with exponential backoff (2-3 attempts)
    • Timestamp validation on market data
    • Alert after N consecutive failures
  • Trigger: N/A - mitigated through retry logic
  • Status: MITIGATED through retry and alerting

🚧 Issues

I001: KuCoin Grid API Limitation

  • Description: KuCoin spot grids cannot be managed via API (manual UI execution required)
  • Impact: System is decision support only, not automated execution
  • Status: ACCEPTED - human-in-loop is feature, not bug
  • Workaround: Manual grid stop via KuCoin UI based on system recommendations
  • Future: Multi-exchange support may enable API-based grid management

I002: Single Exchange Dependency

  • Description: All operations depend on KuCoin availability and API reliability
  • Impact: Exchange outage blocks both data collection and execution
  • Status: ACCEPTED for validation phase (£1K-£10K)
  • Mitigation: Document for future multi-exchange architecture
  • Future: Multi-exchange diversification (post-Phase 5)

✅ Actions

Action 1: Validate 1-Hour Cadence Assumption

  • Description: Backtest actual regime transition warning windows to validate 1-hour evaluation sufficiency
  • Owner: Craig
  • Priority: HIGH
  • Phase: Phase 4 (Backtesting & Validation)
  • Due Date: 2026-04-01
  • Success Criteria:
    • ≥80% of regime transitions provide >2 hour warning window
    • Zero transitions with <30 minute warning window
  • Related: A001, A004, R001

Action 2: Track KuCoin Uptime During Validation

  • Description: Monitor and document KuCoin API/exchange availability incidents
  • Owner: Craig
  • Priority: MEDIUM
  • Phase: Phase 2-5 (ongoing during validation)
  • Due Date: Ongoing, review after 3 months (2026-05-01)
  • Success Criteria: Document frequency, duration, and impact of outages
  • Related: A003, R002

Action 3: Measure False Positive Rate

  • Description: Track False Exit Rate (FER) via KPI framework, analyze opportunity cost vs capital preservation
  • Owner: Craig
  • Priority: HIGH
  • Phase: Phase 4-5 (Backtesting + Operational)
  • Due Date: 2026-04-15
  • Success Criteria: FER <30%, net capital benefit positive vs stop-loss avoidance
  • Related: A005, R004

Action 4: Legal Review - FCA Regulatory Thresholds

  • Description: Obtain legal clarity on FCA algorithmic trading requirements and capital thresholds
  • Owner: Craig
  • Priority: LOW (not urgent for Phases 2-5)
  • Phase: Pre-£100K capital raise
  • Due Date: 2026-09-01 (before external investment)
  • Success Criteria: Clear understanding of regulatory triggers and compliance requirements
  • Related: A006, R005

Action 5: Review Domain-Specific Requirements

  • Description: Return to domain requirements exploration after initial validation data
  • Owner: Craig
  • Priority: MEDIUM
  • Phase: Post-Phase 5 or after 3 months validation
  • Due Date: 2026-05-01
  • Success Criteria: Update domain requirements based on validation learnings
  • Related: All assumptions and risks
  • Notes: Scheduled as part of PRD workflow continuation

Action 6: Quarterly RAIA Review

  • Description: Review and update Risks, Assumptions, Issues, Actions log
  • Owner: Craig
  • Priority: MEDIUM
  • Phase: Ongoing
  • Cadence: Quarterly or after major milestones
  • Next Review: 2026-05-01 (post-Phase 5 completion)
  • Success Criteria: RAIA log reflects current project state, assumptions validated or updated
  • Related: All RAIA items

📊 RAIA Summary Dashboard

CategoryTotalHigh PriorityValidation Needed
Assumptions636
Risks62 (accepted)N/A
Issues20N/A
Actions62N/A

Critical Path Items:

  1. Validate 1-hour cadence assumption (A001, A004) → Action 1
  2. Measure false positive rate (A005) → Action 3
  3. Track KuCoin uptime (A003) → Action 2

Next Review Date: 2026-05-01 (post-Phase 5 completion)

Change Log

  • 2026-02-01: Initial RAIA log created during PRD development (Step 5: Domain Requirements)

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